Method of predicting the effects of major storms
Message posted by Wayne Skinner on April 8, 2000 at 12:00 AM (ET)

I am not a mathmatician! I want to know if the following method of predicting the effects (on the coastal dune line) of a 1 in 100 year storm event is valid?

The sample consists of 10 years of beach profile monitoring on a monthly basis, i.e 120 beach profile measurements. From these measurements we can compile a frequency histogram of the horizontal "excursion" distance in the dune line. In other words the distance the dune line is cut back in an erosion event or combination thereof.
When these results are plotted as excursion distance versus return interval in years (on logarithmic scale) a correlation line can be drawn (correlation coefficient approx 0.98).
Can one then extrapolate this line to estimate the effects (dune excursion) for a 100 year return interval, thus determining the result for a 1 in 100 year storm?

i.e can the frequency results for a 10 year sample be used to predict out to 100 years?