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Monte Carlo simulation
Message posted by Phil McMorrow on September 22, 1999 at 12:00 AM (ET)
Can anyone explain in plain English what a monte carlo simulation is? I assume it is a "reshuffling" of data points in an attempt to forecast in a more realistic fashion the outcome ranges of events without bias.
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Re: Monte Carlo simulation
Message posted by Nancy Diehl on September 22, 1999 at 12:00 AM (ET)
The Monte Carlo method is a sophisticated means of
randomly selecting a sample from one distribution and
compare it to a sample taken from a different distribution.
The method can be extended to estimate the distribution of
an entire system by knowing the distribution of each component
that makes up the system.The technique uses random numbers based on the probability of
occurrence following a particular distribution (e.g. constant,
normal, weibull, etc.). It would be like knowing what the mean
length of a shaft and it's standard deviation, and using
that information to generate or simulate what a sample of 100 of
these shafts would look like based on a normal distribution
with that stated mean and standard deviation.
This method is used a lot when looking at how subassemblies
match up when they are fitted together in the entire assembly.
One may wish to estimate the clearance between two components
that are fitted together to ensure that they don't interfere.
Hope that makes sense
Re: Monte Carlo simulation
Message posted by JG on September 22, 1999 at 12:00 AM (ET)
A monte carlo simulation is any simulation that uses artificially generated random numbers or a set of tricks to make the simulation more efficient by using the artificiality of the process. In a monte carlo simulation one can assume that one is two different cars simulatneously to make a trip keeping everything else the same for comparison purposes. In real life that is impossible.
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