To JG:

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To JG:
Message posted by Ali (via 158.252.76.117) on February 16, 2002 at 9:01 AM (ET)

Thank you for responding to my aviation question. I am confused about finding the exact probability. If 3 flights in 1997 resulted in fatalities, then 3/8,000,000 is .000000375. Isn't this the probability of 3 fatal crashes? I need to figure out how to find the probability of 1 fatal crash.

Here is another related question, one which I can't even figure how to begin: How can you justify this statement? "The FAA states that you can fly around the clock for 438 years before being involved in a fatal crash."

Only given info is: 112 fatal crashes in the past 30 years. 8 million flights in 1997. 3 fatal crashes in 1997.

Thanks for your help!

READERS RESPOND:
(In chronological order. Most recent at the bottom.)

Re: To JG:
Message posted by JG (via 128.8.22.230) on February 17, 2002 at 2:18 PM (ET)

It is the probability that any given commercial flight will crash.

Re: To JG:
Message posted by JG (via 128.8.22.230) on February 17, 2002 at 2:24 PM (ET)

Assuming that an average flight is 2hours, then we have that 12*365*438 is approximately 2 million and one crash in 2 million flight is similar to your other data.

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