simple probability question

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simple probability question
Message posted by Ali (via 206.133.87.46) on February 16, 2002 at 8:05 AM (ET)

This has got to be simple but I am taking it too far to the point I'm confusing myself.

In 1997 there were 8,000,000 commercial flights. what is the probability that any one flight will be fatal?

Given information: In 30 years there were 112 fatal flights. In 1997, there were 3 fatal flights.

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Re: simple probability question
Message posted by JG (via 172.138.16.23) on February 16, 2002 at 8:28 AM (ET)

Your data suggests that there are 3 to 4 fatal flights per year. Thus, your data suggests that a flight is fatal is approximately once per 2 million flights. But remember hundreds of millions fly each year and when a plane crashes many IMPORTANT people die.

Re: simple probability question
Message posted by JG (via 172.138.16.23) on February 16, 2002 at 8:34 AM (ET)

For comparison, why not check how many homeless people die each year by freezing to death, how many people die in hospitals and nursing homes due to negligence, etc.
You may then wish to compare how much news coverage is received per dead person for airplane crashes versus the other catagories that I mentioned.

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